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Go to fight or in prison: how does mobilization create a demographic catastrophe in the Russian Federation?

RussiaDisintegration #РозвалРосії

“Special operation” is not a war, so there is no official mobilization in the Russian Federation, but in fact it is. And it is in full swing. The first wave brought at least 300,000 new fighters to the occupation troops. Almost untrained and poorly equipped, many of them later died or were wounded and severely maimed.

Then the Kremlin resorted to recruiting contract soldiers, who, at least in theory, fight voluntarily for money. Since then, billboards have appeared all over the Russian Federation. A well-made video advertises the benefits of changing jobs of taxi driver, fitness instructor or supermarket security for the military service. “You are a man. So be him,” the video proclaimed. But it did not give the expected results, the number of those interested was several dozen people.

But the Ministry of Defense came up with new laws for effective mobilization. Previously, reservists could be brought to the service only after they had physically received summonses. But since April, they have been responsible from the moment a summons was signed by the draft board, regardless of whether they received it or not. Summonses can now be given electronically or posted on the government’s web portal in the new e-registry. The presence of several children or disabled relatives is no longer a reason for exemption from conscription. Refusal is severely punished by imprisonment.

From the day of delivery of the summons, the conscript cannot leave the country. Those who hide in the Russian Federation quickly find themselves outside the law, unable to drive a car or carry out financial transactions. The maximum age of reservists has been increased, now they are 18 to 27 years old people.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation says that during the last conscription, about 140,000 men were called up for military service, but the real number is most likely lower. About half of them could be forced to sign a contract by threats, coercion and lies. Previously, such a contract could be signed only after three months of military service, and the Kremlin dictator’s laws, adopted in April, abolished this restriction.

The boys are told that they can still be sent to the front, but if they sign the contract, they will at least get paid. But they do not know that the contract they enter into cannot be broken. It essentially turns them into serfs.

The most important thing is that after the end of military service, young men enter the reserve, which can be used during mobilization. In July, the Kremlin passed a law that increases the size of this reserve: the maximum age of mandatory conscription is increased from 27 up to 30, while keeping the minimum age of 18.

With these and other methods, Russia mobilizes about 20,000 people every month. Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate (MID) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, said this at a briefing on August 18. In particular, in Moscow alone, about 10,000 people were additionally mobilized during a few months. Convicts, disabled people were mobilized, and now they are already talking about Putin’s plans for members of the Youth Army, and these, as is known, are minor children. As of 2023, the Youth Army has about 1.5 million members.

According to British intelligence, the occupiers are currently recruiting foreigners to delay the mobilization they are avoiding in the run-up to the elections. There are approximately 6 million migrants from Central Asia in the Russian Federation, whom the Kremlin considers potential recruits. In the summer, in Armenia and Kazakhstan, online advertisements about service in the army of the Russian Federation for a financial reward of several thousand dollars were noticed. Uzbek migrant construction workers who came to Mariupol had their passports confiscated upon arrival. Therefore, they were forced to join the aggressor’s forces.

According to expert data, at least 15-20% of mobilized Russians will die in the war against Ukraine, and up to 50% will be seriously injured, which will significantly exacerbate the problems in the middle of Russia.

Approximately 7 million men aged 20-30 live in the Russian Federation. If we exclude those who are not subject to mobilization for certain reasons or are unfit for military service, at maximum 3 million people remain. Officially, Moscow plans to send another 300,000 people to the war, but the real plan remains a secret, they say the number is 1 million soldiers. If the process continues for more than six months, the chances of each individual Russian getting into the war will be approximately 25%.

The war, most likely, will lead to the death of up to 500,000 young people. These are people who have their whole lives and careers ahead of them. Men between the ages of 20 and 35 are mainly mobilized. This age group is half as small as the group of 35-45-year-olds. And this is a “demographic problem of national importance”, which in the long run will have catastrophic consequences.

Therefore, there is no need even for external intervention, Russia is destroying itself by destroying its own people, in particular the young generation, thus putting a big fat cross on its future.

The materials were prepared by Polina Romanova, the Ukrainian Women’s Guard, for the Free Idel-Ural

Ukrainian Women’s Guard

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